In just a few weeks, the NFL season will kick off and fans are buzzing with anticipation. The big question on everyone’s mind is whether any team in the AFC West can dethrone Patrick Mahomes and the dominant Kansas City Chiefs. And are the Buffalo Bills still the kings of the AFC East?
As we wait for the season to start, it’s the perfect time to dive into my NFL Projection Model and take a closer look at what we can expect from each team in the AFC this upcoming season. Today, we’ll focus on the projected win totals for every team in the conference. Stay tuned for the NFC analysis coming up next.
My NFL Projection Model is a comprehensive tool that analyzes play-by-play data to create offensive and defensive projections for each team. By simulating every game of the season 100,000 times, we can accurately predict win totals, playoff chances, division wins, and even Super Bowl outcomes. But for now, let’s focus on the exciting world of projected win totals.
NFL Projection Model: AFC
AFC East
The Buffalo Bills have dominated the AFC East for the past four seasons, but this year, they face stiff competition after some significant roster changes, including the departure of star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Despite the challenges, my model still sees the Bills as the frontrunners in the division.
With an exceptional quarterback in Josh Allen leading the way, the Bills are poised to defend their title. While the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets have potential, they still have questions to answer. The Indianapolis Colts, despite not playing in the AFC East, have been a dark horse in the past. Ultimately, my model believes in Allen’s ability to lead the Bills to another successful season.
AFC North
The AFC North is shaping up to be a thrilling division this year, with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals neck and neck in the projections. While the Ravens boast a stronger roster, they face a tougher schedule compared to the Bengals, giving Cincinnati a slight edge.
The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to face challenges this season, with potential regression from their previous success. Both teams rely heavily on their defenses, but sustainable success demands a reliable offense. The Browns and Steelers must address their offensive concerns to stay competitive in the division.
AFC South
One of the most exciting divisions in the AFC this season is the AFC South, featuring talented young quarterbacks with high potential. The Houston Texans, led by standout C.J. Stroud, clinched the division title last year, but face tougher competition this season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans all have promising young quarterbacks, making this division a close race. While each team has a chance to come out on top, my model gives the Texans an early advantage due to Stroud’s exceptional performance.
AFC West
The road to success in the AFC West runs through the Kansas City Chiefs, who continue to showcase their dominance behind star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. With Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs remain a formidable force in the conference.
While the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are not expected to challenge for the playoffs, the Los Angeles Chargers under new coach Jim Harbaugh could pose a threat to the Chiefs. Despite undergoing roster changes, the Chargers, led by quarterback Justin Herbert, have the potential to challenge the Chiefs for the division crown.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
