Which Swing State Voters Could Impact the Election?

Understanding the Demographics of Key States in the 2024 Presidential Election

When it comes to American politics, certain demographic factors play a significant role in shaping the electorate. Race, ethnicity, education, and age are just some of the key factors that influence voter sentiments and behaviors during presidential elections. These demographic groups often balance each other out, making the elections highly competitive.

Voters in Key Battleground States in 2020

The 2024 presidential race is expected to be closely contested in seven pivotal battleground states. In the previous election, some of these states were decided by narrow margins of fewer than 40,000 votes. With approximately 1.3 million new potential voters added to these states since the last election, even small shifts in voter sentiment or turnout among specific demographic groups could sway the outcome of the upcoming election.

The Demographic Forces at Play

To gain a better understanding of the demographic dynamics in these battleground states, The New York Times conducted an in-depth analysis of the 2020 election. By comparing precinct-level results with census data, the study identified key trends and voter groups based on race, ethnicity, age, education, and geography in each state.

What to Watch: President Biden’s winning coalition heavily relies on Latino voters, who are expected to increase their share of the electorate in 2024. While Latino voters in Arizona traditionally lean towards Democrats, this group is not monolithic, and their preferences can shift.

What to Watch: Democrats in Georgia are focused on mobilizing Black voters and maintaining support among white college-educated voters to secure electoral victories.